This paper reviews the changes in the coal industry over the
past 30 years and attempts to predict the trends over the next ten years. The
last 30 years have seen a steady concentration of production into fewer, larger
mines, which operate on 3: more continuous basis, and a major increase in
productivity per employee. Coal exports have increased from zero to almost half
the country's total production. As well as major changes in exploration and
mining equipment and the increasing use of computer tools, the industry now
operates in a relatively new regulatory and commercial environment.

Safety legislation now requires the writing and enforcement
of policies and procedures by the mining companies, rather than adherence to
inflexible regulations enforced by an Inspector. Accident rates have decreased
dramatically. The transition from coal mining licences to permits, requiring
landowner consent and resource consents, is well under way. Environmental
controls are now an essential aspect of the industry.

Equipment suppliers now offer
maintenance services, production guarantees and flexible financing. Contract miners offer mine design and
restoration as part of the contract. In a similar approach, Solid Energy now
offer an ash disposal service and assistance with resource consents to their
customers as well as investment in technology to ensure a consistent product to
demanding specifications. Solid Energy has proposals for energy centres which
install and operate the coal burning appliances and simply sell energy to the
customers. The next 10 years should see an intensification of these trends of
bigger mines, more exports and greater technology and a 'package' approach to
customer service.