Improvements in technology do not necessarily lead to higher profits: the benefit of lower costs can be captured by coal buyers, governments and workforce rather than by the colliery operators. The economic impact of longwall mining in Australia has been critically assessed to provide lessons for the future. For a variety of reasons, companies investing in longwall equipment in the past five years have generally not achieved an adequate return on the funds invested. The effect of technological innovation must be examined in the light of competitive forces operating in the market. Projections of cost reduction trends in the coal industry have been applied to a world cost model to provide a picture of the coal industry in the year 2000.