The basic model for the evaluation of any coal-bearing property is the cash flow projection, the major components of which are operating costs, capital charges, taxation and revenue. A range of cash flow projections can be produced by varying the assumptions which underlie the operating costs, by assuming various forms of capital funding, by making assumptions as to future taxation and by speculating upon the present and future market value of the product. As for any model, the informational inputs and assumptions are vital because, no matter how sophisticated the processing, the informational inputs and assumptions cannot be improved by it. That is to say, the validity of the output (the total evaluation itself) cannot be of greater certainty or significance than that of the inputs. The total evaluation can of course be expressed in a number of ways such as the Discounted Cash Flow (D.C.F.) Rate of Return, the Net Present Value or, the Payback Period. The foregoing statement may seem trite. However, it is necessary to be clear about it so as to avoid unnecessary complication and a preoccupation with techniques as opposed to the informational inputs and assumptions. So far as techniques are concerned, much has been written and said about them during the last decade. Most of us have heard, if not always understood, something about probabilistic models, Monte Carlo simulation, sensitivity and risk analysis to say nothing of inflationary costing and the relative merits of developing cash flows in terms of current or constant money. Those techniques have their value, particularly if they can serve to illuminate conclusions which could not be reached on a simple and even perhaps on an intuitive basis. I am, however, reminded of one major coal mining project in which 20 or more major variables were identified, many cash flow projections were run on the computer and a detailed sensitivity analysis was carried out. The major conclusion reached was that the D.C.F. Rate of Return was predominantly sensitive to variations in selling price and operating cost. Of course, the funding and fiscal elements of a cash flow projection have to be dealt with as rigorously as possible._x000D_
However, in the development of any coal property, capital requirements and taxation are, in part at any rate, dependent upon the assumed operational parameters. If the latter are misjudged, the whole evaluation process is deeply affected._x000D_
The same is true of revenue, in the sense that, the positive cash flow is a function of output as well as selling price and again, misjudgements about achievable and maintainable levels of production also deeply affect the final evaluation. I shall try to underline the fundamental influence of the technological factors upon lead times, capital costs, operating costs, taxation, funding and the achievable and maintainable levels of production. In turn, these affect the whole question of coal property evaluation and indeed, the likely success or failure of any coal mining venture. I make no apology therefore that this paper does not set out to discuss the more esoteric aspects of the evaluation process but rather, directs attention towards some of the informational inputs and assumptions which merit clarification and discussion.