Conference Proceedings
Critical Minerals Conference Proceeding 2025
Conference Proceedings
Critical Minerals Conference Proceeding 2025
Decision-making under uncertainty for the strategic implementation and development of the US graphite supply chain
as the global transition to electrified transportation grows and accelerates, graphite has emerged as a critical material in the production of lithium-ion batteries irrespective of specific battery chemistry. Despite its importance, the graphite supply chain remains heavily dependent on imports from geopolitically sensitive regions, raising concerns over the strategic risks of its geopolitical vulnerability, market concentration and price volatility, and the lack of reliance on upstream and midstream operations. The study herein puts forth a strategic decision-making framework which accounts for these risks when developing graphite resources and processing facilities which support the US battery supply chain. a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) model is constructed to assess the best strategies to develop a graphite supply chain supportive of the US battery electric vehicle (BEV) goals and growing demand, while reducing reliance on geopolitically sensitive imports to minimise risks associated with possible supply chain disruption. The model accounts for an exogenous BEV demand growth, imperfect information regarding graphite resources, and the option to gather more information to assess and account for the risks in developing and expanding production assets. The objective involves maximising the BEV output while minimising exposure to geopolitically sensitive materials, guided by an evolving belief state to reduce uncertainty with new information gathered over time. This POMDP framework enables optimal long-term strategic planning while modelling uncertainty to inform sound investment and development of production assets for strategic implementation of the US graphite supply chain.
Contributor(s):
G A Forbes, M M Arief, J Kloeckner, D Z Yin, J K Caers
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- Published: 2025
- Pages: 2
- PDF Size: 0.097 Mb.
- Unique ID: P-04699-V9X3F4