Scenario models for long-term mineral supply struggle to capture important industry dynamics and the uncertainties of mineral exploration. Using the open-source Primary Exploration, Mining and Metal Supply Scenario (PEMMSS) model (Northey et al, 2023), we demonstrate an approach for modelling how long-term scenarios for mineral supply may be shifted by incorporating uncertainty in exploration outcomes and regional ESG risks. For instance, the number of new copper mines required to meet mid-century demand for the global energy transition is highly sensitive to rates of brownfield resource expansion at existing mines, which delays their closure in the model runs. Greenfield discovery (or lack thereof) of new large deposits in model runs can also meaningfully shift long-term requirements for new mine developments. When linking mine development probabilities to regional ESG risks, we see how incorporating these types of risk factors may bias mineral supply towards different regions in the scenario model runs. To date, the PEMMSS model has been applied to explore many of the key factors governing the future of copper, nickel, graphite and lithium supply. This is revealing that many of the key results and outputs produced by future mineral supply scenarios are far more uncertain than is commonly reported once additional industry dynamics are incorporated into the scenario models. Importantly, there is a clear need to distinguish between what are predictions and what are exploratory scenarios when looking at studies of future mineral supply. There is also a need to distinguish between the modelling approaches that are appropriate for shorter-time horizon forecasting (eg 5–15 years) versus those appropriate for informing long-term understanding of sustainable development and resource availability (eg 20+ years).